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Football Outsiders warns against overexuberance on Michael Vick

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  • Football Outsiders warns against overexuberance on Michael Vick

    Say by their by their DVOA metric Vick has played 8 quarters against the two teams with the worst passing defense last year.

    But the good news is that by the same metric the Eagles play a lot of teams with sh*tty pass defenses this year.

    -snip-
    He remains inefficient and erratic. He's improved his timing, but it's not as a passer. Outside of Matt Cassel in 2008, no quarterback has probably entered into a better scenario at the right time than Michael Vick with these Eagles after Week 1.
    -snip-

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/qui...-3-quick-reads
    --------
    "We choose to go to the moon."

  • #2
    Interesting. Cautious optimism.
    "Listen to McCarthy" - Art Vandelay

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    • #3
      I wonder if their metrics take into account that

      the head coach doesn't try running the football until November, and that the offensive line sucks right now.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by IronEagle View Post
        But the good news is that by the same metric the Eagles play a lot of teams with sh*tty pass defenses this year.
        Part of the reason Jax and Det defenses are rated so poorly is that Vick lit them up.

        You've got to be really careful analyzing football statistics. I think the red zone and third down numbers are much more important than some others. Crunch time matters most.
        Last edited by Maniac; 09-29-2010, 10:35 AM.
        Blue Chip College Football - Coach Your College to the National Championship

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Maniac View Post
          Part of the reason Jax and Det defenses are rated so poorly is that Vick lit them up.

          You've got to be really careful analyzing football statistics. I think the red zone and third down numbers are much more important than others.
          Read the article carefully. The author states that Jax and Det were the worst pass defense LAST year. This year so far Det is somewhat improved but Jax is still at the bottom.
          --------
          "We choose to go to the moon."

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          • #6
            In their comments on Vick, they seem to emphasize the negatives. No mentions of receiver drops or anything like that. On the other hand, in their comments on Rodgers, they make excuses about officiating and receivers running the wrong route. I smell an agenda.

            While highlight shows featured what Vick did on his three completions of 42 or more yards, he was wildly ineffective at times. On Philly's first four drives, Vick had the 61-yard touchdown pass to DeSean Jackson ... and otherwise went 2-of-8 for six yards with a sack. After an effective two-minute drill to get an 11-point lead, Vick led two possessions that combined for seven plays by going 2-of-4 for 22 yards and a sack, with both completions coming on third-and-long and ending up short of the sticks, leading to punts. He was only particularly effective once he got the ball back again, with 5:30 left in the third quarter. That the Jaguars had only scored three points had nothing to do with Vick; that the Eagles had only mustered 14 was mostly on him. The great arm and athleticism are still there, and Vick has certainly improved his patience in the pocket. But it's easy to do that against a dreadful pass defense.
            Rarely will you see a quarterback consistently get seven yards as easy as Rodgers did during the second half of the MNF game. While the Bears were able to get pressure on Rodgers in the first half and force him into some pretty impressive scrambles, the Packers let Rodgers throw out of a quick one-step drop a fair amount of the time in the second half. The result was a final two quarters of 18-of-21 for 138 yards and seven first downs. Rodgers' only real mistake was his penultimate throw, a dubious intentional grounding call. While nobody was in the area of the throw and it landed out of bounds, it was a pretty clear case of miscommunication on a route. Had the receiver ran the route it appeared Rodgers was expecting him to, while the throw would have been off, it would not have been so far off that it would have necessitated intentional grounding. In a league where grounding gets called far too infrequently, this was one case where the flag should have stayed in the refs' pocket.
            Blue Chip College Football - Coach Your College to the National Championship

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            • #7
              Vick is no Rodgers and he did struggle in the very beginning of the game, but you're right, there were at least 4 or 5 drops. And, he improved as the game went on. I'd prefer that to the inverse...
              "Listen to McCarthy" - Art Vandelay

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              • #8
                It should be noted that FO's DVOA metric has consistently rated the Eagles a top 5 team (each year) in the NFL for about 10 years now...

                draw your own conclusions

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                • #9
                  That is exactly why I'm still skeptical about Vick.. because the Lions and Jags had bottom 5 pass defenses last (and this) year. Of course, there is the caveat that the passing schedule is fairly easy this year - as you pointed out.. so Vick may actually keep putting up decent numbers this year.

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                  • #10
                    By no objective criteria has Vick been either inefficeient or erratic this season. There is your agenda.

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                    • #11
                      Football Outsiders is the group that wrote an article saying that Todd Pinkston was important to the Eagles than Terrell Owens. I haven't taken any of their bullshit seriously since.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by RSE View Post
                        By no objective criteria has Vick been either inefficeient or erratic this season.
                        That's my thought also. Vick may regress but there is nothing in the numbers or his play so far this season to foreshadow it.
                        Blue Chip College Football - Coach Your College to the National Championship

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                        • #13
                          It's safe to assume these defenses aren't very good when.....
                          ...a pass-happy team's running back scores three times in one game.
                          ...the wide receivers score several times with zero contact.
                          ...the team scores in the red zone after finding a wide receiver open by 10 yards.
                          ...last year, the teams had a total of 26 and 14 (!!!!) sacks the entire year.
                          ...last year, the teams had a total of 15 and 9 (!!!!) interceptions the entire year.
                          ...you win 2 of your last 37 games.

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                          • #14
                            Kapadia asked the guy at Football Outsiders a few questions:

                            http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/...d_erratic.html
                            --------
                            "We choose to go to the moon."

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                            • #15
                              If Vick beats up on below-average pass defenses all season, and leads the Eagles to an NFC East title or a playoff berth, I'm not sure it really matters which teams he did it against.
                              I tend to agree with this. If this team makes the playoffs with this defense and this schedule, it would be pretty awesome...
                              "Listen to McCarthy" - Art Vandelay

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