NFL Draft a Crap Shoot?

[TerpEagle]

http://deadspin.com/study-nfl-teams-have-no-idea-what-theyre-doing-in-the-1378701238

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/20130924_Wharton_professor_studies_NFL_draft__NFL_folly.html

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The franchise asked Massey, "Who is best at the draft? Who should we be paying attention to?"

His answer was surprising.

"I went out and looked at the data," said Massey, sitting in his office on the fifth floor of Huntsman Hall at Penn.

"It turned out, there are no differences in teams' abilities to draft."

There are clearly "huge differences" in outcomes, Massey was quick to point out.

"Some teams have great years, other teams have bad years - and it matters," Massey said. "But those differences aren't persistent year-to-year, which tells me that they are chance driven. Something between 95 and 100 percent - I'm not exaggerating - of team differences in the draft is driven by chance."

There is skill involved in selecting players, the professor said.

"It's just that teams are equally skilled, in a very uncertain environment," Massey said.
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"You should play lottery environments very differently than math-problem environments," Massey said. "With math problems, there's a right answer. Work hard enough and you'll get the right answer. If you can't get it, find the smartest guy in the room and he'll have the right answer."

And lotteries?

"You don't spend any time trying to get the right number because it doesn't make any difference," he said. "You try to get as many draws as possible or spend as little money as possible."
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[tjl88]

It's a chance for a guy like JPP to fall to you, it is a lack of skill to trade up for Brandon Graham.

[art vandelay]

he makes a lot of of good points but i feel like it should be kind of obvious that the NFL draft is a crap shoot. that looks like a least squares regression graph on the right, something that i thinks sums up this analysis fairly well. shouldn't it be obvious that, over time, everything regresses to the mean? that will be the case as long as averages exist.

[Greenstealth]

Everyone misses

http://deadspin.com/study-nfl-teams-...the-1378701238

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/20130924_Wharton_professor_studies_NFL_draft__NFL_folly.html

---
The franchise asked Massey, "Who is best at the draft? Who should we be paying attention to?"

His answer was surprising.

"I went out and looked at the data," said Massey, sitting in his office on the fifth floor of Huntsman Hall at Penn.

"It turned out, there are no differences in teams' abilities to draft."

There are clearly "huge differences" in outcomes, Massey was quick to point out.

"Some teams have great years, other teams have bad years - and it matters," Massey said. "But those differences aren't persistent year-to-year, which tells me that they are chance driven. Something between 95 and 100 percent - I'm not exaggerating - of team differences in the draft is driven by chance."

There is skill involved in selecting players, the professor said.

"It's just that teams are equally skilled, in a very uncertain environment," Massey said.
---
"You should play lottery environments very differently than math-problem environments," Massey said. "With math problems, there's a right answer. Work hard enough and you'll get the right answer. If you can't get it, find the smartest guy in the room and he'll have the right answer."

And lotteries?

"You don't spend any time trying to get the right number because it doesn't make any difference," he said. "You try to get as many draws as possible or spend as little money as possible."
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It's when you can't get a legit starter in two straight drafts... Especially when youre reaching and habitually getting outdrafted at the same positions by rival teams...