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http://deadspin.com/study-nfl-teams-...the-1378701238
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/...NFL_folly.html
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The franchise asked Massey, "Who is best at the draft? Who should we be paying attention to?"
His answer was surprising.
"I went out and looked at the data," said Massey, sitting in his office on the fifth floor of Huntsman Hall at Penn.
"It turned out, there are no differences in teams' abilities to draft."
There are clearly "huge differences" in outcomes, Massey was quick to point out.
"Some teams have great years, other teams have bad years - and it matters," Massey said. "But those differences aren't persistent year-to-year, which tells me that they are chance driven. Something between 95 and 100 percent - I'm not exaggerating - of team differences in the draft is driven by chance."
There is skill involved in selecting players, the professor said.
"It's just that teams are equally skilled, in a very uncertain environment," Massey said.
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"You should play lottery environments very differently than math-problem environments," Massey said. "With math problems, there's a right answer. Work hard enough and you'll get the right answer. If you can't get it, find the smartest guy in the room and he'll have the right answer."
And lotteries?
"You don't spend any time trying to get the right number because it doesn't make any difference," he said. "You try to get as many draws as possible or spend as little money as possible."
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http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/...NFL_folly.html
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The franchise asked Massey, "Who is best at the draft? Who should we be paying attention to?"
His answer was surprising.
"I went out and looked at the data," said Massey, sitting in his office on the fifth floor of Huntsman Hall at Penn.
"It turned out, there are no differences in teams' abilities to draft."
There are clearly "huge differences" in outcomes, Massey was quick to point out.
"Some teams have great years, other teams have bad years - and it matters," Massey said. "But those differences aren't persistent year-to-year, which tells me that they are chance driven. Something between 95 and 100 percent - I'm not exaggerating - of team differences in the draft is driven by chance."
There is skill involved in selecting players, the professor said.
"It's just that teams are equally skilled, in a very uncertain environment," Massey said.
---
"You should play lottery environments very differently than math-problem environments," Massey said. "With math problems, there's a right answer. Work hard enough and you'll get the right answer. If you can't get it, find the smartest guy in the room and he'll have the right answer."
And lotteries?
"You don't spend any time trying to get the right number because it doesn't make any difference," he said. "You try to get as many draws as possible or spend as little money as possible."
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