Oil, how things change

[Eagle Road]

For those of you on here my age or older remember the gas shortage and odd/even fueling and long lines, all day waits?


I also remember all the experts saying the world would be out of oil by 2015 and here we sit looking at a world wide glut and the possibility of $40 a barrel oil.


Not trying to make any kind of a statement other than it's a hell of a turn around, and makes you wonder what other doomsday predictions are off base?

[Phoward12]

A lot of us have neighbors with giant stockpiles of canned food and ammunition that have been collecting dust in the attic for nearly 15 years now.

[Susquehanna Birder]

Interestingly, the lower prices are making the fracking activity less profitable, and the effort seems to be waning, at least for now.

[Riccardo]

One of our conference rooms at work

Still has about 10 clocks in it set for different time zones. They used it as the "war room" for the Y2K apocalypse

[Eagle Road]

I realize that a lot of these changes have to do with advancements in technologies, just makes you wonder what else could/would be available going forward for other issues, water, food, power, disease, etc.

[The Ref]

I also remember all the experts saying the world would be out of oil by 2015 and here we sit looking at a world wide glut and the possibility of $40 a barrel oil.

Those predictions were made at a time when the US fleet was getting 11 miles per gallon on average and getting lower every year. Since 1973 and that oil crisis, pressure was put on the auto industry to increase fuel efficiency, which has steadily risen since. Sadly, the early Ford Model T's got 25 miles per gallon but the industry didn't care about that. All those fins and chrome and power-assisted systems they kept adding through the decades came with heavy penalties in efficiency.

We never had to go down this road if we didn't have such short term vision from the start.

[Riccardo]

Hilarious. It's always a laugh to see another concocted fairy tale from la ref

Predictions were based on oil production peaking in the 70s and then dropping off. Instead, oil production has increased by 50% since then. And natural gas has taken the place of much oil used for heating.

[Eagle Road]

Predictions were based on oil production peaking in the 70s and then dropping off. Instead, oil production has increased by 50% since then. And natural gas has taken the place of much oil used for heating.

Pretty much my thoughts on it, as far as Ref's comment, to a point it's true, SOME older cars did get better mileage than there 70's counterparts.


But let's not kid ourselves, who wants to go out on a cold winter morning and try and crank start that Model T, and then drive to work with no heat, no defrosters, no power steering, no power brakes, so on and so forth?


The reason the new cars get the economy they get is because of technology, fuel inj. computers, better materials, better oils, tighter tolerance's, etc.


Also what is the cost of all of this? I think your new model T went for about 625.00 FOB

[TRENT]

the USA is producing more oil than it ever has

the beauty of this is not just the gas prices but the fact that the terrorist organization get all their money from oil,,so this is a double choke on those scumbags!

[Mt Iggle]

There will be a lot of layoffs in the Bakken, Eagle Ford and Permian.
Smaller high debt companies won't make it through this.

[jrachiever]

Predictions were based on oil production peaking in the 70s and then dropping off. Instead, oil production has increased by 50% since then. And natural gas has taken the place of much oil used for heating.

I think you're mistaken here. The same theory (Hubbert peak theory) that predicted global peak oil production sometime around now also correctly predicted the peak of US oil production in the 1970s. That theory was based on 1950s well production data, and while improved technology and new extraction methods have changed the shape of the curve, peak oil production via traditional cheap production methods is probably not far away. The doomsday scenarios that some thought would accompany peak oil were the myth, not the reality of peak production.

Also, at today's oil prices, the bulk of US fracking is operating at a loss. $60 per barrel is about the average break even price.

[Eagle Road]

There will be a lot of layoffs in the Bakken, Eagle Ford and Permian.
Smaller high debt companies won't make it through this.

Yep, buyouts, mergers, and bankruptcy's coming, I see this almost as a game of Chicken on a Global scale, no country/corp. wants to cut production because it will kill there GDP.


So everyone will keep pumping until the price gets to a point that someone will collapse.


Been reading a prospectus that says Exxon/Mobil is prepared and will still be pumping/drilling at 40.00 a barrel.


With Russia already propping up the Ruble it makes you wonder how long they can hang, as their inflation is going thru the roof.

[IronEagle]

Here's a good primer as to what what is going on.

Increased supply and attempts at reducing demand are both having effects.

It's all about supply and demand.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...r-and-cheaper/

Shorter version for those who won't read anything too long:
Demand is down, supply is up.

Question is if it is sustainable.

[Eagle Road]

Here's a good primer as to what what is going on.

Increased supply and attempts at reducing demand are both having effects.

It's all about supply and demand.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...r-and-cheaper/

Shorter version for those who won't read anything too long:
Demand is down, supply is up.

Question is if it is sustainable.

Yep, just reading where the Saudi's lowered their price instead of cutting production, some see it as an affront to the oil production in this country.


But another theory is that the Saudi's are doing this to see if they can kill Iran/Iraq economies and if it takes Russia with them, so be it.


They feel that with Putin being the bull in the china closet that Europe may feel better about getting petro products from SA rather than Russia.


The Saudi's have over 800 billion in petro reserve assets, Russia had about 250 billion, but with their issues that is thought to not last long.


Interesting times ahead.

[Mt Iggle]

It will be very interesting. I see a big part is SA vs Iran and Russia( as well as reducing US fracking), all in SA's interest.
I figure the next 6 months, and than things will be happening.
I see Oklahoma has some layoffs coming.