Dead Cat Bounce Investing

[Dim Bulb]

That's my new theory. Tried it with XOM at 88 and got out in a week. Tried it with UNG at 15.35 and shoulda gotten out in a week (although UNG is more of a long term bet that it's gonna get cold in the Midwest and southeast this winter). Trying it with MDXG today.

The clear downside of this short term time the market strategy is that if it is in fact a dead cat that doesn't bounce you get hammered and give away everything you might've gained elsewhere.

I'm just so tired of these investment guys covering their butts by saying "you can't time the market." BS. They just don't want to work hard enough to figure out which dead cats will actually bounce.

DB

[slag]

Who ya like

in the fifth at Gulfstream?

[Dim Bulb]

Ignore my Dead Cat Reports at your peril

in the fifth at Gulfstream?

I like Lucky Dan to place.

[Riccardo]

gambling

Better off at a casino

[Dim Bulb]

Better off taking homeopathics

Better off at a casino

When you are convalescing, as you know, you have a lot of time to come up with crazy ass theories that you convince yourself make sense.

DB

[GroundedBird]

I have had pretty good success with Stochastics (both daily and Weekly) when timing the market.

I only really get messed up with News events (FOMC announcements, ECB announcements, threats to oil supplies, etc.)

Ever tried that?

[Dim Bulb]

Moving average oscillation

I have had pretty good success with Stochastics (both daily and Weekly) when timing the market.

I only really get messed up with News events (FOMC announcements, ECB announcements, threats to oil supplies, etc.)

Ever tried that?

Is too technical for me. I like the herd instinct theory. If everyone is panic selling, buy. But be willing to be wrong...

[GroundedBird]

Is too technical for me. I like the herd instinct theory. If everyone is panic selling, buy. But be willing to be wrong...

sounds like you might be interested in the movement of the VIX (often called the fear index); You know "when the VIX is high, you buy, when the VIX is low, you go"

Let me know how you do. I'm always interested in different approaches.

Here's an example: (Market is the purple line on the top graph, the VIX is the candle sticks beneath, stochastics is in the bottom graph) -> http://tos.mx/OKMAgT

[06hawkalum]

Market timing is a fool's errand.

Spend a few days reading through the posts at:

www.bogleheads.org

They may just save you from yourself!

[Dim Bulb]

I respectfully disagree

Market timing is a fool's errand.

Spend a few days reading through the posts at:

www.bogleheads.org

They may just save you from yourself!

I think market timing is a short term strategy that can work in tandem with value investing. I would say 98% of what I own is value invested. But taking 2% or even 5% and putting it at short term risk is like buying derivatives in a stock/bond portfolio. Just my opinion.

[Dim Bulb]

sounds like you might be interested in the movement of the VIX (often called the fear index); You know "when the VIX is high, you buy, when the VIX is low, you go"

Let me know how you do. I'm always interested in different approaches.

Here's an example: (Market is the purple line on the top graph, the VIX is the candle sticks beneath, stochastics is in the bottom graph) -> http://tos.mx/OKMAgT

That's a great resource, thanks!

[Maniac]

[GroundedBird]

Market timing is a fool's errand.

Spend a few days reading through the posts at:

www.bogleheads.org

They may just save you from yourself!

No need to save myself. It has worked for me.

Jack Bogle is the founder of Vanguard. Quick question, would Vanguard stand to gain or lose by convincing people they can't time the market/invest for themselves?

Also, read up on Paul Tudor Jones and see if you still think you can't time the market.

[GroundedBird]

That's a great resource, thanks!

My pleasure. Send me a PM if you want to discuss further.