One thing about Murray...

[AnnapolisEagle]

Last year he had nine touchdowns of 3 yards or fewer. McCoy had three.

McCoy has more for his career, but he's got a lot more total touchdowns, too. For their careers, 58 percent of Murray's scores are 3 yards or less, compared with 44 percent for McCoy.

I beefed with Kelly's goal line play-calling last year, thinking he should have been more willing to get Shady on the edge and let him do work. But I wonder if the red zone issues last year have at least a little to do with this.

Another interesting thing: Murray's numbers seem to bear out the idea his running style could fit better than Shady. The theory is that Murray will help the offense stay "on schedule" by picking up yardage more consistently because he's less prone to dancing and multiple cuts like McCoy.

Last year, Murray gained 2 yards or fewer on 40.8 percent of his carries (8 TDs), while McCoy did it 45 percent of the time (3 TDs). Shady's 2013 was slightly better than Murray's 2014, though (McCoy gained 2 yards or fewer on 40.4 percent of his carries in 2013, with 5 TDs).

For their careers, Murray has run for 2 yards or less on 39.7 percent of his carries. McCoy is at 43.3 percent.

Schemes, offensive lines, etc. all change of course, so it's not really apples to apples. But still, pretty interesting.

-AE

[BigSlizz]

Early last season when they needed a goal line TD, Sproles got the touches. McCoy improved down the stretch, but I wonder if Chip had to say "look, if you want the goal line touches, you have to hit the hole."

[slag]

Too many variables to compare stats like that.

What was the down and distance at the time they gained 2 or fewer ... what point in the game ... etc etc.

EDITED TO ADD:

For example, if Murray ran it in the middle on 3d and 1 or less on more occasions than McCoy and got the first against a stacked line, it's still a success but looks like shit on the stat sheet.

[D Leff]

Murray was a cockroach, but he's an Iggle now so I don't give a F. That being said, I like the combo of Sproles and Murray quite a bit more than Sproles and Shady. Even though I'd probably take Shady straight up if I was starting my own team, if that makes sense......

[AnnapolisEagle]

Too many variables to compare stats like that.

What was the down and distance at the time they gained 2 or fewer ... what point in the game ... etc etc.

EDITED TO ADD:

For example, if Murray ran it in the middle on 3d and 1 or less on more occasions than McCoy and got the first against a stacked line, it's still a success but looks like shit on the stat sheet.

Ok.

For their careers, Murray has had 149 carries on plays with 1 to 3 yards to go. He got a first down (or TD) 71.8 percent of the time. (Average yards to go: 1.61, yards per carry: 4.38). Shady has had 245 carries (31 more career games) and gotten a first down (or TD) 64.9 percent of the time. (Average yards to go: 1.67, yards per carry 4.73).

So, Murray has generally been more successful in those situations while Shady has more yards per carry (he had two 60+ runs in short yardage situations, Murray's longest is 48 yards).

[nerd]

Ok.

For their careers, Murray has had 149 carries on plays with 1 to 3 yards to go. He got a first down (or TD) 71.8 percent of the time. (Average yards to go: 1.61, yards per carry: 4.38). Shady has had 245 carries (31 more career games) and gotten a first down (or TD) 64.9 percent of the time. (Average yards to go: 1.67, yards per carry 4.73).

So, Murray has generally been more successful in those situations while Shady has more yards per carry (he had two 60+ runs in short yardage situations, Murray's longest is 48 yards).

demarco has always been on the cusp of being really, really good but his injuries are total shit and that's why i'm like, "i'm excited..but if he gets hurt...that's about right"

I think most of his injuries are like nagging injuries too...which I think the sports medicine stuff could help out with....at least I think so.

blowing ligaments and stuff like that? just have to pray that they hold up.

[AnnapolisEagle]

Early last season when they needed a goal line TD, Sproles got the touches. McCoy improved down the stretch, but I wonder if Chip had to say "look, if you want the goal line touches, you have to hit the hole."

And Polk had seven touchdowns on 57 carries the last two years. Two of them last year were from the 1-yard line.

[TerpEagle]

Another interesting thing: Murray's numbers seem to bear out the idea his running style could fit better than Shady. The theory is that Murray will help the offense stay "on schedule" by picking up yardage more consistently because he's less prone to dancing and multiple cuts like McCoy.

Agree 100%

I think this is a big upside for the offense that Kelly runs. Negative/zero yard plays (especially run plays) kill drives and when you're working quickly, I don't think you necessary want boom or bust.

Steady is what keeps the offense clicking (at a high speed) and allows the defense to rest.

[AnnapolisEagle]

demarco has always been on the cusp of being really, really good but his injuries are total shit and that's why i'm like, "i'm excited..but if he gets hurt...that's about right"

I think most of his injuries are like nagging injuries too...which I think the sports medicine stuff could help out with....at least I think so.

blowing ligaments and stuff like that? just have to pray that they hold up.

Yeah, the injury histories of all the new additions are definitely scary. No doubt.

[TerpEagle]

Ok.

For their careers, Murray has had 149 carries on plays with 1 to 3 yards to go. He got a first down (or TD) 71.8 percent of the time. (Average yards to go: 1.61, yards per carry: 4.38). Shady has had 245 carries (31 more career games) and gotten a first down (or TD) 64.9 percent of the time. (Average yards to go: 1.67, yards per carry 4.73).

So, Murray has generally been more successful in those situations while Shady has more yards per carry (he had two 60+ runs in short yardage situations, Murray's longest is 48 yards).

Stats in a vacuum! Were the runs to the right or left? Who were the guard/center combo? Was the defense playing 1-gap or 2-gap? Were the plays run from under center or shotgun? Indoors or outdoors? Rainy or sunny? Turf or grass? Night or day? What month? Leap year? What was the average rainfall and corresponding sogginess of the field?

[Eagle Road]

I think what some are missing on comparing Murray to Shady is that as both of these guys age, I would think (maybe all wrong here) that a downhill back will drop off much less of an incline than a back like Shady.

Once Shady loses a step, which he may have already, he will no longer be getting those long runs, he will be getting caught at the LOS.

Where as a one cut back could go on for a much longer career, as in a Gore of even a Bettis.

Thoughts?

[AnnapolisEagle]

Agree 100%

I think this is a big upside for the offense that Kelly runs. Negative/zero yard plays (especially run plays) kill drives and when you're working quickly, I don't think you necessary want boom or bust.

Steady is what keeps the offense clicking (at a high speed) and allows the defense to rest.

I've tried to dig up the stats for this and haven't had a ton of luck, but I think one of the broadcasts flashed some kind of crazy stat about how frequently the Eagles scored when they avoided 3 and outs.

If they can change a few 2nd and 9 situations to 2nd and 7, it might make a huge difference.

[AnnapolisEagle]

Stats in a vacuum! Were the runs to the right or left? Who were the guard/center combo? Was the defense playing 1-gap or 2-gap? Were the plays run from under center or shotgun? Indoors or outdoors? Rainy or sunny? Turf or grass? Night or day? What month? Leap year? What was the average rainfall and corresponding sogginess of the field?

I was hoping to control for the phases of the moon, but no such luck.

[TerpEagle]

I was hoping to control for the phases of the moon, but no such luck.

I need to know!

Obviously, what happened before 2015 may have no bearing on this year but the idea of switching from a strikeout/homerun style to a singles/doubles style is intriguing.

[AnnapolisEagle]

I think what some are missing on comparing Murray to Shady is that as both of these guys age, I would think (maybe all wrong here) that a downhill back will drop off much less of an incline than a back like Shady.

Once Shady loses a step, which he may have already, he will no longer be getting those long runs, he will be getting caught at the LOS.

Where as a one cut back could go on for a much longer career, as in a Gore of even a Bettis.

Thoughts?

Honestly, I have no idea. Downhill backs who take a lot of contact can really fall off a cliff. And Murray hasn't been an iron man so far in his career, either. He's missed 11 games in 4 seasons compared to Shady's 6 in 6 seasons.

McCoy and Murray are the same age but Murray *theoretically* has more tread on his tires. He's had about 650 fewer NFL touches, though he had about 250 more in college.