Doug Pederson changed the NFL

[Maniac]

Like him or not, it's true. Why the hell didn't the Bills kick the FG? Fkkk the analytic gurus.

[thegodfather]

Like him or not, it's true. Why the hell didn't the Bills kick the FG? Fkkk the analytic gurus.

Josh Allen needs 1 yard with 3 d lineman, ill take that all day long, watch the replay they did not stop him he slipped and fell. That was the right call.

[art vandelay]

They didn’t kick the FG because Josh Allen should be able to fall forward. No guarantee they’ll get the ball in OT (or make the FG). That was 100% the right call.

[Maniac]

If you believe you're the better team, you want OT. Absolutely the wrong call.

[art vandelay]

If you believe you're the better team, you want OT. Absolutely the wrong call.

I don't understand that at all. If you think you're the better team, shouldn't you think that you can get a foot on a QB sneak, and then score against an awful defense?

OT leaves too much up to chance. If you lose the coin flip, you're giving the ball to a team whose RB has 143 yards and 3 TDs.

[Mr. Triple Dip]

Like him or not, it's true. Why the hell didn't the Bills kick the FG? Fkkk the analytic gurus.

It was the nerds upstairs - Doug was receptive to listening to analytic guys though. Remember his first year he got killed from some of his 4th down calls - meanwhile behind the scenes he had full support of the org since he was just following the numbers.

[Mr. Triple Dip]

I don't understand that at all. If you think you're the better team, shouldn't you think that you can get a foot on a QB sneak, and then score against an awful defense?

OT leaves too much up to chance. If you lose the coin flip, you're giving the ball to a team whose RB has 143 yards and 3 TDs.

Agreed - this was a case where the analytics and game situation both said to go for the win right there - better chance to gain a foot and win than go to OT and win. Combine that with the fact that the Bills defense couldn't get a stop all second half and I think it was the right decision, just had a bad result.

[Maniac]

I don't understand that at all. If you think you're the better team, shouldn't you think that you can get a foot on a QB sneak, and then score against an awful defense?

It's like casino gambling. The house wins in the long run because of their odds advantage. The smaller the sample, the more swingy the outcome. The better team should want the game to be determined by multiple plays instead a single play.

Anyway, I mostly wanted OT because I needed five more rushing yards from Josh Allen for a player prop parlay.

But I do believe the Bills should have taken their chances in OT. Too much reliance on analytics.Those charts are not perfect. There's too many factors involved.

[art vandelay]

It's like casino gambling. The house wins in the long run because of their odds advantage. The smaller the sample, the more swingy the outcome. The better team should want the game to be determined by multiple plays instead a single play.

Anyway, I mostly wanted OT because I needed five more rushing yards from Josh Allen for a player prop parlay.

But I do believe the Bills should have taken their chances in OT. Too much reliance on analytics.Those charts are not perfect. There's too many factors involved.

I mean...odds advantages and sample sizes. That sounds like analytics. If McDermott didn't believe he had the better team (I didn't know this was required of coaches), perhaps he was onto something. Tennessee scored on its last 6 drives. As Mr Triple Dip said, the situation also pointed to relying on a QB sneak rather than a coin flip.

I know we'll never agree here, but I think there are a lot of misconceptions about analytics. I'm sure I'd agree with you if I'd needed OT though

[Maniac]

I mean...odds advantages and sample sizes. That sounds like analytics. If McDermott didn't believe he had the better team (I didn't know this was required of coaches), perhaps he was onto something. Tennessee scored on its last 6 drives. As Mr Triple Dip said, the situation also pointed to relying on a QB sneak rather than a coin flip.

I know we'll never agree here, but I think there are a lot of misconceptions about analytics. I'm sure I'd agree with you if I'd needed OT though

I don't think we disagree that much. I could argue the fourth down call both ways. I don't think there's a absolutely correct decision. I was being a bit facetious.

Analytics isn't the problem. Excessive reliance on analytics is the problem. Coaches are deferring decisions to charts so they don't get in trouble with owners. Like happened to Pederson when the Eagles beat Green Bay but ran too much according to the analytics guy.

Really good deep dive on Eagles and analytics below. Its behind the the Inky paywall but they're running an 8 weeks for 99 cents promotion. Nice deal as long as you remember to cancel.

https://www.inquirer.com/eagles/a/ea...-20210909.html

[Dim Bulb]

Honestly, I was sitting there thinking that Sean had gone insane not kicking the FG. Just my opinion of course.

[3rd & Inches]

I firmly believe that you should always go for it on 4th & 1 during any point in a game. But of course it needs to be a well designed play with great execution.

This play was doomed because of poor execution. That Bills Left Tackle got destroyed. Slip or no slip, the play failed when the left tackle didn’t do his part.

[RSE]

I don't understand that at all. If you think you're the better team, shouldn't you think that you can get a foot on a QB sneak, and then score against an awful defense?

OT leaves too much up to chance. If you lose the coin flip, you're giving the ball to a team whose RB has 143 yards and 3 TDs.

Henry is a hell of a running back. 247 pounds and the fastest running back in the NFL. Once he went 76 yards to the house he completely spooked the Bills. They got no pressure on Tannehill all night because if they blitzed they risked Tannehill handing the ball to Henry.

[RSE]

I think McDermott managed the clock poorly at the end of the game. Even if Allen has made the first down but not the touchdown, the clock is still running, you have no timeouts, you have to clock the ball, do you have time for two plays?

Also the Bills used up thirty seconds on that drive because Diggs didn’t run out of bounds when he had the opportunity in a catch. Trying to use up as much clock as possible before you score is a dangerous game.

[art vandelay]

I don't think we disagree that much. I could argue the fourth down call both ways. I don't think there's a absolutely correct decision. I was being a bit facetious.

Analytics isn't the problem. Excessive reliance on analytics is the problem. Coaches are deferring decisions to charts so they don't get in trouble with owners. Like happened to Pederson when the Eagles beat Green Bay but ran too much according to the analytics guy.

Really good deep dive on Eagles and analytics below. Its behind the the Inky paywall but they're running an 8 weeks for 99 cents promotion. Nice deal as long as you remember to cancel.

https://www.inquirer.com/eagles/a/ea...-20210909.html

I went for the subscription. Good article.

If it's true that Lurie was mad that the team ran too much against GB in 2019, that's ridiculous. I just find it hard to believe an analytics guy told him that. Obviously I'm biased toward analytics, but all it does is debunk some conventional wisdom about "establishing the run." It actually favors running in short yardage and red zone situations. Analytics would never say that a team that run 33 times for 176 yards ran too much, especially when they averaged basically the same amount of yards per pass attempt.

Ryan Paganetti, mentioned earlier in that article, posts some really interesting stuff on twitter. I thought this thread about electing to go up 8-3 on SF last year was cool: https://twitter.com/PaganettiRyan/st...31833956765708