Two point conversion decisions

[Maniac]

First, I think it was dumb for the Falcons not to take two on their first drive. On the road, you take the two there. Think how close last years game eas. I guess going on fourth is going to be the new fad now.

Second, i dont understand Doug going for two after the last TD. If the Falcons score a TD running out the clock, as almost happened, you lose either way. But if they had scored a quick TD, you're only down two if you had kicked the XP and can win with a FG. Fail on the two pointer and a FG only gets you OT. Or worse, you need a TD if they score and convert a two pointer.

[TerpEagle]

First, I think it was dumb for the Falcons not to take two on their first drive. On the road, you take the two there. Think how close last years game eas. I guess going on fourth is going to be the new fad now.

Second, i dont understand Doug going for two after the last TD. If the Falcons score a TD running out the clock, as almost happened, you lose either way. But if they had scored a quick TD, you're only down two if you had kicked the XP and can win with a FG. Fail on the two pointer and a FG only gets you OT. Or worse, you need a TD if they score and convert a two pointer.

Kicking the extra point is no longer quite the given it used to be. I think you'd easily rather be up 6 than 5.

[Big Little]

Yes rather be up 6 than 5 - Bryant missed the extra point earlier - no brainer.

[dev_32]

Kicking the extra point is no longer quite the given it used to be. I think you'd easily rather be up 6 than 5.

Yeah that's how I took it, that was going to be the last possession, and play for possible block/missed XP

[Maniac]

Kicking the extra point is no longer quite the given it used to be. I think you'd easily rather be up 6 than 5.

I think XPs are running about 95 percent and 2 pt conversions are about fifty-fifty in the league. Not sure of these numbers specifically for Eagles but believe they should be about right.

For me, the difference between 4/5 pt lead is much more significant than the difference between 5/6. You can be really fkkked at 4 if they score and get two. Even if they don't, a FG only gets you to OT. At 5, a FG wins after a TD + XP and keeps you in the game after an TD + 2. 6 point lead only comes into play if the Falcons score a TD and convert 2.

5 is easily better than 4 but how is 6 easily better than 5?

Math geek stuff I know but I find it interesting.

[Maniac]

Yes rather be up 6 than 5 - Bryant missed the extra point earlier - no brainer.

Whether Bryant missed an XP or not, you're talking about 90+ percent vs 50/50. Hardly a no-brainer. Unless you believe they should never kick XPs.

I want to know why you think being up six is so much better than five.

[TerpEagle]

I think XPs are running about 95 percent and 2 pt conversions are about fifty-fifty in the league. Not sure of these numbers specifically for Eagles but believe they should be about right.

For me, the difference between 4/5 pt lead is much more significant than the difference between 5/6. You can be really fkkked at 4 if they score and get two. Even if they don't, a FG only gets you to OT. At 5, a FG wins after a TD + XP and keeps you in the game after an TD + 2. 6 point lead only comes into play if the Falcons score a TD and convert 2.

5 is easily better than 4 but how is 6 easily better than 5?

Math geek stuff I know but I find it interesting.

Looking specifically at the teams that played last night, Bryant missed an XP and Elliot is notorious for making shorter kicks more exciting than necessary.

Generally, if they're up 6, the other team needs to score twice - the TD and the conversion/XP - to take the lead.

[JuTMSY4]

This

For me, the difference between 4/5 pt lead is much more significant than the difference between 5/6. You can be really fkkked at 4 if they score and get two. Even if they don't, a FG only gets you to OT. At 5, a FG wins after a TD + XP and keeps you in the game after an TD + 2. 6 point lead only comes into play if the Falcons score a TD and convert 2.

5 is easily better than 4 but how is 6 easily better than 5?

Math geek stuff I know but I find it interesting.

Being up 5 is better than 4 because you can't win the game on an FG if the Falcons score a TD. 6 and 5 margins are worthless.

Of course, Doug also made sure no Falcons bettors covered haha

[Maniac]

Generally, if they're up 6, the other team needs to score twice - the TD and the conversion/XP - to take the lead.

Like I said, successful XPs are 95 percent. You don't make decisions thinking about the Falcons missing an XP. You have to assume they will make it.

Obviously, it's an inexact science but I would have gone the high percentage route, kicked the XP and taken the five point lead. Differing opinions are valid. I'm sure the Eagles ran it by their analytics guy.

[Maniac]

Of course, Doug also made sure no Falcons bettors covered haha

Hadn't thought of that angle. I like it!

[art vandelay]

i think that 5 is no better than 4 at all, while 6 is infinitely better than 5. i think that teams saw it this way even before the XP was moved back.

whether you're up by 4 or 5, a team has to score a TD to beat you. if you're up by 6, and a team scores a TD, there's at least a chance that they will miss the XP.

the worst case scenario last night was that we failed to score the 2PC, then atlanta got 7 and went up 19-16, and that our potential FG would only be game-tying, instead of game-winning. i think that situation required a lot of things to happen, the odds of which were even slimmer than that of a missed/blocked XP. ultimately doug made the right call because the next falcons possession was the last of the game.

[slag]

We discussed the pros and cons in the stands ... the argument by a guy in front of us was that if you are up by six that they might miss the PAT and its a tie ... and going for two is not on the table because they're up less than 3 either way. Downside (as you indicate) is, if you fail, a PAT on a TD by them is a 3-point lead.

Kicking the PAT for a five point lead is more guaranteed but they'd probably go for two if they have a one point lead on a TD ... if you stop them you win with a FG (as you say).

We concluded it's kind of a toss up.

[Maniac]

We concluded it's kind of a toss up.

Agreed.

What did you think about the Falcons not settling for the FG attempt on the first drive? Old school NFL always kicks that.

[slag]

I like new school NFL about as much as new school baseball.

I would have kicked it.

Grueger Hill made a nice play right in front of us on that ... we saw every goal line stand in our end.

Loud fun abounded.

[slag]

PS - doesn't mean I dislike all aggressive play that was not the norm before, but early points are still gold in the NFL