Middleton Laid Down The Law

[McCarthy12]

I guess I'm not really thinking about it from a business perspective. I'd just rather have Harper for 3 year than not. Now, if you told me this deal would prohibit them from making a serious run at Trout, then I'd say forget it. Try to add some pitching and see what happens.

I'm getting to the point where the whole thing is tedious and I don't really care if he comes here or not.

[Snakebitten]

I'm approaching that same point. At the end of the day, the opt out holds this team hostage for three years which will eventually result in more absurd money. He's only 26 which will line him up for a ten-year contract in three years. I don't mind paying him until his mid-30s not his late-30s.

[McCarthy12]

For sure. I don't want him on an albatross contract in his late 30's. I'd take him on for 3 years, try to win, and let him walk if he wants out after 3. Hopefully by then he either wants to stay on the deal (ha!) or he is expendable because the team has continued to improve.

[bobbyuk]

If they wanted a 3 year opt out why not just take the Giants shorter deal? Or offer him a 5 year deal for £175?

[JuTMSY4]

I'm not sure this opt-out thing is real. If it's 3 years, then he can opt out after the 2021 season. The MLB CBA ends in december 2021 - why would Harper want to take an opt out in the winter the CBA ends?

Presumably, the opt out period would begin in November and would only last a few days - Harper wouldn't know the result of CBA negotiations yet. It's very unlikely he expands his ability to get a larger contract (I think middling level players will gain much more than the elite ones).

Maybe if a deal is struck, it will be to his benefit to have that control. However, if one isn't, he's in an even more volatile situation.

If they wanted a 3 year opt out why not just take the Giants shorter deal? Or offer him a 5 year deal for £175?

He gets protection in the event he's injured or kinda sucks or isn't worth another 300/10 contract

[Snakebitten]

If they wanted a 3 year opt out why not just take the Giants shorter deal? Or offer him a 5 year deal for £175?

If he gets hurt or declines rapidly, he loses big money. It's a no-lose situation to have an early opt out. If he kills it here for three years, he gets 10 years, $400m. If he doesn't, he just steals money here for ten years. I suspected this was the hold up because it's such a bad deal for organizations.

[JuTMSY4]

Heyward is the best example. Stanton is a good one but he's still really good.

[Snakebitten]

If Boras doesn't get him an opt out, he's not doing his job. It's almost as important as the money itself. I'm not sure Middleton can spend enough to make that go away. JMO.

[JuTMSY4]

undoubtedly, it'll have one. Machado most likely had to move his back (5 years) to get to 300 mil. That 5 year option will most likely never come into play.

How dumb do they look not paying Machado 300/10?

[Snakebitten]

I'm going to let it play out since I didn't want to overpay for Machado. I truly believe he will stop caring after a few years. I think San Diego is a perfect place for someone who doesn't care about winning and doesn't want to hear any backlash from the city. If I'm spending for one player for ten years, I want nothing to do with Machado. I have more faith in Harper. I could be wrong.

[JuTMSY4]

You could be right

I'm going to let it play out since I didn't want to overpay for Machado. I truly believe he will stop caring after a few years. I think San Diego is a perfect place for someone who doesn't care about winning and doesn't want to hear any backlash from the city. If I'm spending for one player for ten years, I want nothing to do with Machado. I have more faith in Harper. I could be wrong.

Machado had that "loafing" issue, although I really think it was overblown. However, he plays a far more premium position and has a much smaller injury history.

Again, I think not signing one of them will be a failure of the FO. They spent the last 2+ years preparing for this and Middleton's stupid money comment will live in infamy regardless of it's factual backing.

[06hawkalum]

Machado had that "loafing" issue, although I really think it was overblown. However, he plays a far more premium position and has a much smaller injury history.

Again, I think not signing one of them will be a failure of the FO. They spent the last 2+ years preparing for this and Middleton's stupid money comment will live in infamy regardless of it's factual backing.

That is, unless they manage to make the playoffs this year w/o Harchado. All would be forgiven.

[JuTMSY4]

I think some people think I have rose colored glasses

That is, unless they manage to make the playoffs this year w/o Harchado. All would be forgiven.

but you put me to shame, man.

Harper positions this team similar to the '08 squad. Without him, there's a lot more pressure on Williams, Franco and Hernandez to perform. It makes the Realmuto trade and Cutch signing look very awkward.

This team really is about one elite player away from the playoffs, so I'm not sure they'll get there in arguable the toughest division in baseball.

But sure, if they make the playoffs, all will be forgiven.

[06hawkalum]

but you put me to shame, man.

Harper positions this team similar to the '08 squad. Without him, there's a lot more pressure on Williams, Franco and Hernandez to perform. It makes the Realmuto trade and Cutch signing look very awkward.

This team really is about one elite player away from the playoffs, so I'm not sure they'll get there in arguable the toughest division in baseball.

But sure, if they make the playoffs, all will be forgiven.

Oh, I don't think they'll win the division, but with the advent of the 2nd WC they could conceivably finish in 3rd and still make the playoffs.

I look at it like this...they won 80 games last year. They upgraded at C, 1B, OF, and RP. I think they should win least at 85 games. Furthermore, I believe they could realistically win 88-92 games as currently constructed if they stay healthy and a few positive developments occur (Arrieta returns to 1st half, pre-injury form, Williams and/or Franco has at least a mini-breakout, etc.)

It seems that plenty of posters still think the Phillies are on track for another sub-.500 season and I don't understand their logic. Seems like irrational pessimism and ignorance of the value of the guys they already have added.

I mean, this is a board for Eagle diehards, some of whom refer to baseball as "basebore." Do they really know anything about JT Realmuto, Jean Segura, and David Robertson?

I'm doubtful.

[JuTMSY4]

they won 80 games via some luck. Their Pythagorean win total was 76.

1) Does Realmuto (vs. alfaro), Hoskins (vs. Santana), Cutch vs (Hoskins) and Robertson give you 14 more wins? I dunno

2) The other teams aren't static. Braves will be better even if they stood pat. Mets improved a little, Nationals are much more balanced and probably better in 2019. The division will be very tough to win games in

3) Outside of the Marlins, there are not dreadful teams in the NL.

4) Banking on williams, Franco and arrieta isn't ideal.

we'll see. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see them topping 90 wins w/o harper.