The Monty Hall Problem

[IronEagle]

Rod Iron

Rod Iron

[common wealth]

IE explained it well.

By showing you the boob all they have really done is show you that it isn't behind a certain door, that doesn't change the odds that you were right in the first place.

If they had said you can have door 1, or doors 2 and 3, you would take doors 2 and 3 even though you know for a fact one of them has a boob prize behind it, that's effectively what Monty Hall did.

[Drama Queen]

The problem with IE's example is

IE explained it well.

By showing you the boob all they have really done is show you that it isn't behind a certain door, that doesn't change the odds that you were right in the first place.

If they had said you can have door 1, or doors 2 and 3, you would take doors 2 and 3 even though you know for a fact one of them has a boob prize behind it, that's effectively what Monty Hall did.

that he made one scenario out of two.

Instead of:
Case 1: You originally pick door 1. Monty shows you a boob in either door 2 or 3. You switch = BOOB

It should be:
Case 1: You originally pick door 1. Monty shows you a boob in door 2. You switch = BOOB
AND
Case 1a: You originally pick door 1. Monty shows you a boob in door 3. You switch = BOOB

[Drama Queen]

Had this been brought up before July 4th, I think a guy like JPP would have pointed this out.

[TerpEagle]

IE explained it well.

By showing you the boob all they have really done is show you that it isn't behind a certain door, that doesn't change the odds that you were right in the first place.

If they had said you can have door 1, or doors 2 and 3, you would take doors 2 and 3 even though you know for a fact one of them has a boob prize behind it, that's effectively what Monty Hall did.

In round 1 the odds say you most likely picked incorrectly. So now that Monty has removed one of the possible incorrect doors the odds would be the other door is the correct choice.

[Maniac]

Once Monty shows you the boob, your chances are fifty-fifty whether you switch or not.

Your chances improve when Monty reveals, not when you switch.