Nice read by David Murphy on why Eagles shouldn't take EE at 8

[art vandelay]

smokescreen.

[Ground_Meat]

smokescreen.

Is he even smart enough to put one out?

[J_Cuz31]

When you see some hard #'s and historical data like this it makes you never want to take a RB in top 20-25 picks no matter who it is. Way more bust than boom.


http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/...8__Eagles.html

First off, I dont know how long Murphy has been writing about football but most people understand that there is a 33 percent chance that any player taken in the first round is going to be a bust regardless of what position he plays. So unless he has done the research to support that more first round RBs are busts than say first round QBs, his pointing out recent RB busts is irrelevant.

Second, lets check out some hard numbers and historical data.

Nine of the top ten leading rushers in NFL history were taken 17th overall or higher. Of the top thirty all time leading rushers 77 percent were first round selections and half of those thirty were selected with the eighth pick or higher.

In addition, 80 percent of the best single season rushing yardage performances were delivered by players selected in the first round with 53 percent of them delivered by players taken with the eighth pick or higher.

The bottom line is, if the Eagles think Ezekial Elliott is going to be a great player they have to take him, with the lone exception being if a QB they like better is still on the board.

Good running backs grow on trees. Great RBs grow in the first half of the first round of the draft.

Top ten all time rushers:

E. smith 1/17
W. payton 1/4
B. Sanders 1/3
C. Martin 3/74
L. Tomlinson 1/5
J. Bettis 1/10
E. Dickerson 1/2
T. Dorsett 1/2
J. Brown 1/6
M. Faulk 1/2

[Melchior]

First off, I dont know how long Murphy has been writing about football but most people understand that there is a 33 percent chance that any player taken in the first round is going to be a bust regardless of what position he plays. So unless he has done the research to support that more first round RBs are busts than say first round QBs, his pointing out recent RB busts is irrelevant.

Second, lets check out some hard numbers and historical data.

Nine of the top ten leading rushers in NFL history were taken 17th overall or higher. Of the top thirty all time leading rushers 77 percent were first round selections and half of those thirty were selected with the eighth pick or higher.

In addition, 80 percent of the best single season rushing yardage performances were delivered by players selected in the first round with 53 percent of them delivered by players taken with the eighth pick or higher.

The bottom line is, if the Eagles think Ezekial Elliott is going to be a great player they have to take him, with the lone exception being if a QB they like better is still on the board.

Good running backs grow on trees. Great RBs grow in the first half of the first round of the draft.

Top ten all time rushers:

E. smith 1/17
W. payton 1/4
B. Sanders 1/3
C. Martin 3/74
L. Tomlinson 1/5
J. Bettis 1/10
E. Dickerson 1/2
T. Dorsett 1/2
J. Brown 1/6
M. Faulk 1/2

Actually, the bottom line is that an OT will play about twice as long as a RB of equal talent. RB is a poor investment in general. I know everyone got chubbed up watching the NCG but I don't see him as an AP-level RB which is the only way I can justify him at #8.

[Ellsworth]

Good points. I'd argue the game had changed quite a bit in past 20 years and RB is somewhat devalued while elite wr is more important.

Elliot sure seems like a safe pick and a can't miss guy but RB's have shorter shelf lives for sure. If he's the pick nobody will be up in arms about it.

Just hard to trust Roseman on draft day based on historical data.

[J_Cuz31]

No I think the real bottom line is if youre howie roseman and you think he is gonna be a perennial pro bowler but you dont take him because of positional devaluation youre doing the same dumb shit you did before when you took Jaiquan Jarrett because you needed a safety. And, if this guy is on the level of AP, you dont want to be the team that took Levi Brown instead.

This pick is too important for Murphys armchair analyisis to hold any relevance.

The only move at eight is BPA. Thats it. If Elliott is at the top of their board when they pick and they pass on him Roseman learned nothing the year he spent staring at the wall in the basement in the Novacare complex.

This is the exact kind of bullshit that Howie relishes because it offers him more excuses to fuck up more draft picks. Dont let this guy off easy when he has so much invested in this singular draft pick.

[3rd & Inches]

I agree BPA for pick 8 unless u have an eye on a QB.

[common wealth]

I'd go OL and try to get Fournette/Cook/Chubb/McCaffrey next year

[2Far]

Good points. I'd argue the game had changed quite a bit in past 20 years and RB is somewhat devalued while elite wr is more important.

Elliot sure seems like a safe pick and a can't miss guy but RB's have shorter shelf lives for sure. If he's the pick nobody will be up in arms about it.

Just hard to trust Roseman on draft day based on historical data.

You just can't go RB in the McMahon area. Holding penalties, man!

Wide receiver is how you go. 60 yard pass interference penalties!

[2Far]

I do actually hate that shit, but just listen to any NBC game and Collinsworthless will explain that if he just would have"come back to the ball" he will draw the flag.

CBs also should not have to "turn their head around" if they can just make the play

[Two Gap Penetrator]

From what I've read, VH3 is.....

...small and will get pushed around by physical NFL receivers. Is that true?

[Ellsworth]

Hargreaves is listed at 5'10" and around 200lbs

Reminds me a lot of Darrelle Revis.

[Ellsworth]

With the current personnel makeup (aka "shit show") they have no CHOICE but to take BPA at 8. I'm thankful even they cannot possibly fuck up the 8th overall pick.

Rounds 3 and beyond should be a gut wrenching cluster fuck for the fans to watch unfold. I have absolutely zero confidence in any picks after 8 panning out. Hoping for the "blind squirrel" idiom to hit and they (we) get lucky.

[Melchior]

With the current personnel makeup (aka "shit show") they have no CHOICE but to take BPA at 8. I'm thankful even they cannot possibly fuck up the 8th overall pick.

Rounds 3 and beyond should be a gut wrenching cluster fuck for the fans to watch unfold. I have absolutely zero confidence in any picks after 8 panning out. Hoping for the "blind squirrel" idiom to hit and they (we) get lucky.

With the 8th pick in the 2016 NFL draft, the Philadelphia Eagles select... Christian Hackenberg!

[Ellsworth]

Edit: meant to say current pro personnel staff makeup. That circus.

Not the Eagles' personnel aka players.