No home field advantage at the Linc

[IronEagle]

It seems that most people get annoyed with me when I look at large sample sizes to examine trends when they want to use more anecdotal data to make their points. Fancy that.

First of all, you said there were many different factors that affect the game.

As I said to PackWest, the familiarity aspect of it and having home fans probably does give some boost. But if you look at the games played by Reid coached teams, arguably one of the better/best eras of Eagles football, playing at home vs. on the read meant very little in the win/loss column regardless of the home stadium in Philadelphia. And it's over a large (224+ game) sample size.

So, for whatever reason, the things that you felt and others felt probably meant very little when it came to wins and losses since the stats for home and way are nearly identical.

And nearly every coach that wins a home game says that fans were great. Even if they weren't. Of course, anecdotally I'm sure there are a few exceptions.

N= 1 coach. That's the smallest possible sample size. You simply can't say if another coach would have gotten more or less out of the team at home.

[IronEagle]

It seems that most people get annoyed with me when I look at large sample sizes to examine trends when they want to use more anecdotal data to make their points. Fancy that.

First of all, you said there were many different factors that affect the game.

As I said to PackWest, the familiarity aspect of it and having home fans probably does give some boost. But if you look at the games played by Reid coached teams, arguably one of the better/best eras of Eagles football, playing at home vs. on the read meant very little in the win/loss column regardless of the home stadium in Philadelphia. And it's over a large (224+ game) sample size.

So, for whatever reason, the things that you felt and others felt probably meant very little when it came to wins and losses since the stats for home and way are nearly identical.

And nearly every coach that wins a home game says that fans were great. Even if they weren't. Of course, anecdotally I'm sure there are a few exceptions.

N= 1 coach. That's the smallest possible sample size.

And during the Veterans stadium area, an area consisting of many more games and coaches than the Linc area, the team had a much better record at home than on the road. I'm inclined to think that maybe Reid (FF) let the players get away with too much at home and that hurt their home record. Or maybe Reid (FF) was distracted by some things when at home. Or maybe that the stadium is somewhat dead at times.

Besides as far as I can tell, everybody is in agreement that there is no home team advantage at the Linc... for whatever reasons. The disagreement is if there was one at the Vet and I submit that the large sample size of games indicates that there was.

[slag]

More stupid stat tricks.

Some wins are impacted by the HFA and others aren't, yet you lump all them together.

And I wasn't talking about lip service to the fans, I was talking about pointed remarks about feeding off the crowd.

But you can draw conclusions based on what you think "probably" was unimportant if you want.

[Greenstealth]

Why even argue with the guy. It's a "feel" thing. You can't quantify it with wins and losses. Go to the games, the energy is was and has been completely different since the linc opened. I think andy fatigue has worsened the situation.

[TerpEagle]

Why even argue with the guy. It's a "feel" thing. You can't quantify it with wins and losses. Go to the games, the energy is was and has been completely different since the linc opened. I think andy fatigue has worsened the situation.

It can't be quantified with wins and losses (i.e. actual results) but it's a tangible advantage? Wow.

[TerpEagle]

More stupid stat tricks.

Some wins are impacted by the HFA and others aren't, yet you lump all them together.

And I wasn't talking about lip service to the fans, I was talking about pointed remarks about feeding off the crowd.

But you can draw conclusions based on what you think "probably" was unimportant if you want.

So again, you're picking and choosing which results matter and which don't. I'm looking at the overall results over Reid's tenure at both stadiums.

If you think there is a homefield advantage that helps in some games, yet the overall results are pretty flat, could you then conclude there is a homefield disadvantage for others?

[TerpEagle]

N= 1 coach. That's the smallest possible sample size.

And during the Veterans stadium area, an area consisting of many more games and coaches than the Linc area, the team had a much better record at home than on the road. I'm inclined to think that maybe Reid (FF) let the players get away with too much at home and that hurt their home record. Or maybe Reid (FF) was distracted by some things when at home. Or maybe that the stadium is somewhat dead at times.

Besides as far as I can tell, everybody is in agreement that there is no home team advantage at the Linc... for whatever reasons. The disagreement is if there was one at the Vet and I submit that the large sample size of games indicates that there was.

I clearly stated "during the Reid era" and that I'd like to see if there is a difference with Kelly. Reid's era however was the most successful over a long term. The "a bad team gets a boost" argument doesn't apply that well since they're pretty much a good team over his 14 years in both stadiums. Maybe it matters for for a bad team more than a good one.

[Greenstealth]

Who said energy and momentum are tangible to an amatuer statistician? You spend too much time on here trying to convey an opposing opinion, put the doritos down and go to some games. Your ac is either boring or the university of maryland is printing degrees on toilet paper (probably both).

[TerpEagle]

Who said energy and momentum are tangible to an amatuer statistician? You spend too much time on here trying to convey an opposing opinion, put the doritos down and go to some games. Your ac is either boring or the university of maryland is printing degrees on toilet paper (probably both).

Was that your burn? Really?

I know maths are scary to some people and my mediocre degrees are probably just a bunch of pomp and circumstance (however I am sorry you have an apparent inferiority complex and feel need to make fun of them and the work I put into achieving them) but here's a real simple equation for you.

More wins = better performance.

If the team has roughly the same number of wins at the Linc, at the Vet and at opposing team's stadiums, it suggests that the actual venue means fairly little in the grand scheme of things.

Winning or losing a football game is an actual, objective result. That's what matters - to me at least.

But maybe you're just an old-school fan that I'll never "get". You know, the kind who thinks Buddy Ryan was a better coach than Reid aside from all evidence otherwise. You probably just know it in your gut and that's what really matters.

If that's the case, then you're hopelessly lost in a world of superficiality and all I can say is carry on.

[slag]

If someone annoys me less than someone else I can't quantify it, but the ones who annoy me less have an actual, factual, real, tangible advantage in getting a favor from me.

I've already exhausted why W/L is dependent on too many other factors to use as a way to dismiss HFA, and I'm not going into it again.

I'm actually pretty sure you know exactly what I'm talking about, but I'm also pretty sure you'll keep going on in this thread in a way that will even further lessen any tangible influence you might create in me wanting to do any favors for you.

[TerpEagle]

If someone annoys me less than someone else I can't quantify it, but the ones who annoy me less have an actual, factual, real, tangible advantage in getting a favor from me.

HFA could impact a game that would be a blowout into a close loss, but it's still fucking loss, even if HFA had a positive effect ... thus, lessening the value of your prized stat as a measuring device.

And sometimes it helps the team win a close game ... provided all the other shit that makes it a close game exists for the HFA to effect.

So, because year to year and opponent to opponent has not been consistent over a long sample of time for the Eagles,wins and losses give some indication but it's not precise enough to dismiss the HFA.

I'm pretty sure you know exactly what I'm talking about, but I'm also pretty sure you'll keep acting in a way that will severely lessen any tangible influence you might create in me wanting to do any favors for you.

I don't deny possible instances of HFA effecting a game - and I think what PackWest pointed out regarding familiarity with the venue, weather, etc. has merit. And of course, crowd noise can interfere with plays being called on the field.

If you look at playoff records for the Eagles during Reid's tenure, the Eagles have done significantly better at home. Some of that probably has to do with scheduling (bye weeks, etc.), some to do with the weather, and some to do with the atmosphere within the stadium.

But, if we choose to both agree that the venue can have an effect, why is it that the effect is nearly immeasurable in terms of team performance over the long term? Not only between the two Philly stadiums, but really whether the game is even played at home or way for the large regular season sample size.

So even if there is some effect, it would seem to be pretty negligible - at least during Reid's tenure. Maybe that's because he coached a certain way, maybe it's because of random chance of other variables, maybe it's because during that time the Eagles typically fielded a good team and the venue mattered less.

That to me says the HFA, if it does exist, is fairly inconsequential with respect to the Eagles during the last 14 years so comparing the Linc to the Vet from that standpoint doesn't mean a whole lot.

Based on the opinion of fans compared to the performance of the team it matters more to them and their experience. I don't discount the importance of that contrary to what others may say about me not "feeling" it. I'm just looking at results of what the team does.

The venue seems to have made little difference to the team but a lot of difference to the fans.

[RSE]

You know the lesson of the Scarecrow in the Wizard of Oz, don't you? Conferring a college degree on someone is not the same thing as conferring on that someone a brain.

[TerpEagle]

You know the lesson of the Scarecrow in the Wizard of Oz, don't you? Conferring a college degree on someone is not the same thing as conferring on that someone a brain.

You've previously made your opinion known on the quality of the University of Maryland. Thanks for updating me though.